Chaire Quetelet 2010

2010 Quetelet Seminar

24th-26th November 2010, Louvain-la-Neuve 

Research Centre in Population and Societies
Université catholique de Louvain

Stalls, resistances and reversals in demographic transitions

Program   

On-line communications

The world has engaged in a global demographic transition with impressive changes in both its population dynamics (fertility decline, gains in life expectancy, slowdown in growth rates) and its age structure (population ageing). Even though few countries or regions are immune to these changes, the timing and pace of transitions widely differ across the globe. This variability has been observed in the past in the Western world, and it can be seen today in developing regions.

Once started, demographic transition processes were deemed to be irreversible, steady and universal, gradually spreading throughout territories and social groups. They were thought to encourage socio-economic progress and to lead to global convergence in terms of mortality, fertility and growth rates. Even though this pattern corresponds to the demographic history of many countries and regions, others have followed a much more uneven course: some of them have experienced slowdowns in fertility or mortality declines, upheavals in marriage patterns, and some cases, trend reversals or strong resistances to changes, etc.

The 2010 Quetelet Seminar will be devoted to the analysis of such reversals and resistances to classical transitions. The focus will be put on atypical demographic trends of the present or the past, in contrast with common beliefs and dominant theories.

Papers for the conference will address both methodological issues (data sources and quality, techniques and assumptions underpinning the assessment of demographic trends) and theoretical questions. They can focus on specific countries, regions or communities. Priority will be given to papers dealing with contemporary changes or with historical trends relevant to the present. Topics will include (but are not limited to) the following questions and examples:

1 - Methodological issues
How can we reliably measure demographic stalls or reversals, particularly in the developing world? For instance, are DHS surveys an appropriate tool? Are demographic surveillance sites the panacea? What can we learn from vital registration systems in the past? More generally, when exactly can we consider that a trend is affected by a stall or a reversal? Which biases are induced, for instance, by assumptions regarding the linearity of trends? Are common indices (such as TFR, mean age at first marriage and infant and juvenile mortality rates) sufficiently sensitive to identify disruptions in trends ? Which tools or methods are counter-indicated in these contexts?

2 - Fertility
In the last decade, the declining fertility trends in several developing countries seem to have decelerated, stagnated or even reversed. To what extent are these trends spurious? What is the role of the intermediate variables in these trends?  How to explain the differences between urban and rural areas, or among social groups? What are their causes (economic, social, political, and sanitary)? How to explain the pre-transition increase in fertility observed in the history of several countries or regions?  What about fertility rises in Europe in the 1930’s and in the early 1940’s? More generally, what is the impact of wars, conflicts, economic crises or pandemics (such as HIV-AIDS) in disrupted fertility transitions?

3 - Nuptiality and family
Throughout the globe, there has been a general trend towards postponement of marriage and increases in cohabitation. Nevertheless, how can we explain the recent developments such as free union, the resistance of polygamy in several African regions or endogamy in the Muslim Arab world? How do conflicts and temporary crises (food, climate) modify behaviours, patterns and levels of nuptiality or family structures? What are the consequences of these evolutions for the demographic transition?

4 - Health and mortality
Nearly one country out of four (United Nations, 2009) – not only the poorest ones – has experienced a mortality crisis or a decline in life expectancy in the past twenty years, due to sanitary, political or economical issues. To what extent are these stagnations or reversals spurious (due to data quality)? How can they be assessed accurately? Who do they affect in the first place? In such contexts, how do the age patterns of mortality evolve? What is the impact of HIV-AIDS, conflicts, impoverishment, natural disasters or the collapse of health systems?

5 - Migrations
Even though rural exodus remains substantial, and urbanization goes on in most countries, we observe in the recent years a slowdown of the urbanisation pace, “de-urbanisation”, new mobility patterns, and return migration in particular cases. What would be the long term impact of these phenomena on demographic transitions?

6 - Empiric and theoretical uncertainties
Several questions about the future arise from what precedes. For instance, do we tend relentlessly towards 2 children or less per woman, and towards nuclear families?  Are there already, or will there be, certain thresholds which are difficult to trespass, in terms of fertility (2.5 or 3 children per woman), infant mortality (around 30 per thousand) or life expectancy? How can these thresholds be determined? 

Abstracts

Instructions for submitting a paper
Abstracts (1 page including tables) should be submitted by email before 15^th June 2010 to Isabelle Theys (Isabelle.Theys@uclouvain.be). The abstracts should include a description of the paper’s objective, background, data and research methods, as well as expected findings. Authors of accepted papers will be notified 7^thJuly.

Paper
The completed papers should be sent before 5^th November 2010 to Isabelle.Theys@uclouvain.be. The PDF versions of the papers will be available online on the Research Centre’s website (www.uclouvain.be/demo), and will remain available after the Quetelet Seminar. Final versions must be at most 20 single-spaced pages long, including tables and references.

Language
Papers will be presented in French or English, without simultaneous interpretation.

Deadlines
Deadline for submission: 15^th June 2010
Author notification of accepted paper abstracts: 7^th July 2010
Deadline for completed paper: 15^th November 2010
Quetelet Seminar: 24^th-26^th November 2010

Registration fees
Full: 120 euros
PhD student: 20 euros
The fees must be paid when sending the registration form or, at the latest, before the opening of the conference, in cash, crossed cheque, or international money order to bank account no. 310-0959001-48 of the Research Centre in Population and Societies (mention: DEMO56L1/CQ2010).

Registration form

How go to Louvain-la-Neuve?

Map of Louvain-la-Neuve

Contact/information

Isabelle Theys
Centre de recherche en démographie et sociétés,  Université catholique de Louvain
1/17 Place Montesquieu, 1348-Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgique
Tel. +32 10 472951,  Fax. +32 10 472952
Isabelle.Theys@uclouvain.be
www.uclouvain.be/demo