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20% of car-commuting UCLouvain staff could shift to cycling

eli | Louvain-la-Neuve

eli
22 June 2026 , modified on 25 June 2026

Cycling uptake isn't about bike lanes alone — it only occurs when at least 3 of 4 conditions are met at once. Applied to UCLouvain staff, this pinpoints a concrete, named group: 20.5% of car commuters could realistically switch to cycling — a real target for policy, as opposed to a vague aspiration.

 

Figure 1. The four components of the prospective framework are (a): cycling accessibility corresponding to the collective territorial compatibility, vital domain to report on individual territorial compatibility, perception of bikability to refer to collective behavioral capacity, and cycling motility to describe the individual behavioral capacity. Representing these four dimensions as a Venn diagram (b) with four spheres allows to describe the interrelationships and intersections between the four components.

 

In a recently published article, Barbara Stinglhamber (ELI), Yves Hanin and Pierre Defourny (ELI) examine the mobility patterns of members of the UCLouvain staff, focusing in particular on the modal shift from cars to bicycles.

Why don't more people cycle to work, even where bike paths exist? 

The study shows that cycling uptake depends on four conditions lining up together: 

  • Is the destination reachable by bike?
  • Do your daily errands fit within cycling range?
  • Can you physically and practically ride?
  • Do you actually see cycling as a good option? 

Using a survey of 1871 UCLouvain staff commuting to Louvain-la-Neuve, they found that having at least three of these four conditions in place reliably predicts who cycles to work.

 

Figure 7. Prospective analysis of the cycling potential of university employees working in Louvain-la-Neuve. The maximum potential includes respondents with four compatible components, and the high potential includes those with three. The realized potential refers to current primary cyclists, while the possible modal shift corresponds to primary motorists. Public transport users and pedestrians are excluded from the analysis.

 

Applying this "bikeability" framework to the campus, the researchers estimate that 20.5% of car-commuting staff could realistically shift to cycling — a precise, policy-actionable target, distinct from the roughly 20% of employees for whom a bike commute isn't realistic under current conditions, no matter the policy. 

The framework gives decision-makers a way to know exactly which lever to pull — more bike lanes? better transit links? awareness campaigns? — and for whom. 

 

Read the full scientific article here.