13 May | 12:45 | Dupriez D. 144

Keiti Kondi

(Bureau Fédéral du Plan)

will give a presentation on 

The importance of migration hypothesis in population projections

Abstract

Migration is a crucial yet inherently uncertain component of population projections, particularly in the context of long-term demographic forecasting and economic planning. This presentation examines the "migration hypothesis"—the set of assumptions and modeling techniques used to account for migration flows—and its profound implications for population structure. Given its high sensitivity to policy changes, economic conditions, and geopolitical events, migration introduces significant volatility into demographic forecasts. Using comparative analyses of projection scenarios with varying migration assumptions, we illustrate how shifts in migration can markedly affect total population size, age distribution, and dependency ratios. By highlighting the importance of methodology and scenario-based modeling, the presentation underscores the need to better integrate migration uncertainty into population projections to inform policy decision-making.

About the speaker

Keiti Kondi is an expert in demography and population dynamics at the Federal Planning Bureau. She is responsible for population and household projections.