LIDAM Economics Seminar

The LIDAM Economics Seminar is jointly organized by economists from CORE and IRES. 

Pratical details

  When does the LIDAM Economics Seminar takes place?

The LIDAM Economics seminar (formerly UCLouvain Economics Seminar) takes place on Thurdays from 12:45 to 14:00. 

  Where does the LIDAM Economics Seminar takes place?

The LIDAM Economics Seminar usually takes place at room Doyen 22, place des doyens, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve. Any room change will be indicated in the programme below next to the speaker. 

  Programme for the academic year 2025-2026

September 2025

18 Cristina Manea (Bank for International Settlements)
Targeted Taylor Rules: Some Evidence and Theory 

Abstract
This paper introduces the concept of targeted Taylor rules defined as monetary policy rules which allow for different responses to demand– versus supply–driven inflation. This new concept tallies with Federal Reserve’s monetary policy strategy as reflected in its official communications. When estimated for the United States using recent decompositions of inflation in demand and supply factors, this new type of rule points to an almost fourfold stronger monetary policy reaction to demand– than to supply–driven inflation starting with Paul Volker’s Chairmanship. We show how to embed the new targeted rule into a textbook New-Keynesian model when the economy is simultaneously hit by demand and supply shocks and discuss its implications for business cycle fluctuations and welfare.

(joint with B Hofmann and B Mojon)

25

October 2025

02 Bart Cockx (Ghent University)
Biased Beliefs in Job Search: Structural Evaluation of Counseling and Coaching

Abstract

Using Swiss data on job search behavior and expectations about interviews, we evaluate a program combining intensified counseling and coaching to address biased beliefs, in a randomized trial. We develop a job search model with Bayesian updating of biased perceptions about the number of interviews. Job seekers are initially overoptimistic, then become over-pessimistic as past signals fade. The model replicates the non-monotonic job-finding rate and patterns in applications, (expected) interviews, and wages. It decomposes the treatment effect into key drivers—search efficiency, job search costs, and beliefs—identifying belief formation as main channel through which the program accelerates employment transitions.

09 Eve Colson Sihra (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
Feeding the Gap: A Test of the Gender-Intensification Hypothesis Using Food Consumption

Abstract

When do gender stereotypes emerge and intensify? Although stereotypes affect education, occupation, and parenting, those outcomes are measured only later in life, making the initial divergence hard to identify. We use food consumption as a high-frequency revealed outcome observable from childhood onward. Using U.S. household barcode panel data, we document persistent gender differences across the food basket, including a 20% gap in red meat consumption. Engel-curve estimations and supplementary online surveys indicate that these gaps are not explained by physiological needs, observables, or information differences. We then link consumption to attitudinal measures and show that gender-stereotypical views mediate a substantial share of the meat gap. Turning to panel identification, we find that the meat gender gap begins in late childhood, widens sharply during adolescence, and stabilizes thereafter. This pattern is consistent with the gender-intensification hypothesis--that gender differences widen in adolescence. We corroborate our results using secondary datasets on implicit and explicit associations between gender-career and gender-science across age. Overall, consumption offers a tractable behavioral marker on when gender stereotypes emerge and intensify, with implications for the timing of equality-oriented policies and for environmental and health interventions targeting meat consumption.

16 Konstantin Egorov (University of Antwerp)
Threat of Sanctions

Abstract

Most sanctions on imports to Russia were imposed immediately after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In that same month, the sanctioning countries promised to escalate sanctions further unless the conflict ended. In line with this threat, we estimate that the subsequent escalation was largely anticipated in advance, with trade flows declining many months before they actually became subject to sanctions. Crucially, this effect was not limited just to sanctioned trade flows: we also identify a wide range of never-sanctioned trade flows that nonetheless could have been perceived as threatened by future sanctions. Overall, our results imply that Russia lost the equivalent of about a month and a half of imports over 2022–23 due to the escalation of sanctions after April 2022, with two-thirds of this loss driven by reductions in non-sanctioned trade flows that were only under the threat of sanctions.

23 Maya Eden (University of Zurich)
Fixed Point Utilitarianism (very preliminary)

Abstract

How should policymakers make decisions that affect the population trajectory? I propose a choice rule which reflects the goal of maximizing the sum of utilities of those people who will end up existing. This choice rule consists of a solution to a fixed point problem. I demonstrate the implications of this choice rule in a two-period macroeconomic model.

30 Cuimin Ba (University of Pittsburgh)

Over- and Underreaction to Information: Belief Updating with Cognitive Constraints

Abstract

This paper explores how cognitive constraints interact with the information environment to determine whether people overreact or underreact to information. In our model of belief updating, limited attention leads people to form a distorted mental model or representation of the information environment, and limited processing capacity generates cognitive imprecision when using this representation to update beliefs. The model predicts overreaction when facing complex environments, noisy or surprising signals, or priors concentrated on moderate states; it predicts underreaction when facing simple environments, precise or confirmatory signals, or priors concentrated on extreme states. A series of pre-registered experiments provide support for these predictions and direct evidence for the proposed cognitive mechanisms. Crucially, the interaction between the cognitive constraints generates the observed pattern of bias: neither constraint on its own can explain the data. These results connect prior disparate findings on whether underreaction versus overreaction arises.

November 2025

06 Kirill Shakhnov (University of Surrey)
Short- and Long-Run News: Evidence from Giant Mineral Discoveries

Abstract

The bulk of the news shocks literature focuses on shocks materializing after four or five quarters, with limited evidence on news about longer-run events. We build a new dataset of discovery and production start dates for a wide range of giant commodity discoveries worldwide from 1960 to 2012. Standard open economy models match the empirical responses of short-run news but fail in the case of long-run news. Incorporating financial frictions in the form of collateral constraints is crucial for capturing the dynamics implied by long-run news. We also provide direct evidence on the role of these frictions.

13 Daniel Wainstock (Oxford University)
Five Millennia of Nation-Building

Abstract

The relationship between states and collective identities is not straightforward. Nation-building has often failed, backfired, or produced enduring divisions, and in other settings high polarization or entrenched segregation led states to adopt power-sharing or federal arrangements. This paper investigates the long-run role of states in constructing shared identities by moving beyond isolated historical episodes and assembling systematic global evidence over the long run. I construct a grid-cell level dataset that links ethnic homelands and linguistic boundaries to five millennia of recorded state history. Leveraging an instrumental-variables strategy, the analysis establishes that grid cells with deeper historical exposure to centralized polities display substantially lower ethnic fragmentation today, with linguistic homogenization as a mediating channel. Together, the results show that states have left a durable imprint on the cultural landscape, socially constructing identities through a cumulative process unfolding over millennia rather than a phenomenon confined to the modern era.

20 Nikhil Vellodi (PSE)
Self-Prospecting: Optimal Experimentation under Present-Bias

Abstract

A present-biased decision maker (DM) faces a two-armed bandit problem whose risky arm generates random payoffs at exponentially distributed times. Under full information, the DM's belief remains unchanged prior to payoff arrivals, generating a ``lumpy'' belief process that updates infrequently but conclusively. Our main finding is that coarsening the DM's information to foster ``gradual optimism'' - a continuously increasing path of beliefs during active experimentation - helps motivate the DM more effectively and deliver them greater welfare. We relate our findings to those in behavioral psychology relating to motivation, learning, and self-control, and apply our results to parenting and pedagogy.

27 Alireza Sepahsalari (University of Bristol)
Self-Insurance and Welfare in Turbulent Labor Markets

Abstract

We examine the impact of wealth on shaping labor market out- comes under turbulence risk—the risk of skill loss following job displacement. We develop and quantify a heterogeneous-agent search model with incomplete markets, skill dynamics, and job tiers. Wealth affects workers’ occupational mobility, generating heterogeneous wage outcomes following job displacement. Using U.S. data, we document that poor workers suffer the most signif- icant and most persistent wage losses upon reemployment, in line with the model predictions. Though policy exercises, we show that unemployment insurance increases welfare, while job creation sub- sidies more effectively stimulate output and reduce unemployment spells, highlighting novel trade-offs between policy instruments.

December 2025

04 Thomas Goda (EAFIT)
You are worth that to me – Uncovering the hierarchy of central bank currency swaps

Abstract

Bilateral central bank currency swaps are crucial elements of the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN). This paper examines whether the scale and distribution of swap provision reinforce US-dollar dominance and how the People's Bank of China (PBOC) resists dollar hegemony through its currency swap strategy. Using comparative descriptive statistics and a two-step Heckman selection model, we analyze a novel panel dataset covering all bilateral swaps between 2007 and 2023. We derive two main arguments: First, US Federal Reserve (Fed) swaps target systemically important financial core countries where dollar-denominated borrowing affects US financial stability. Second, periphery countries deemed unworthy of US Fed swaps rely on alternatives, mostly renminbi-denominated PBOC swaps. Our results show that the GDP per capita of countries receiving PBOC swaps is about half that of Fed swap recipients. China primarily targets periphery countries with which it has strong trade relationships. It appears that these swap provisions have contributed somewhat to the renminbi's internationalization; however, the PBOC's swap size is less than one-sixth of the Fed's. We conclude that the existing swap hierarchy nourishes US dollar dominance predominantly through swap scale. The current monetary system is therefore likely to persist for the foreseeable future, sustaining the dollar's international use in core financial markets.

11 Lukas Mahler (KU Leuven)
Efficiency and Equity of Education Tracking - A Quantitative Analysis

Abstract

We study the long-run aggregate, distributional, and intergenerational effects of school tracking—the allocation of students to different types of schools—by incorporating school track decisions into a general-equilibrium heterogeneous-agent overlappinggenerations model. The key innovation in our model is the skill production technology during school years with tracking. School tracks endogenously differ in their pace of instruction and the students’ average skills. We show analytically that this technology can rationalize reduced-form evidence on the effects of school tracking on the distribution of end-of-school skills. We then calibrate the model using representative data from Germany, a country with a very early school tracking policy by international standards. Our calibrated model shows that an education reform that postpones the tracking age from ten to fourteen generates improvements in intergenerational mobility but comes at the cost of modest losses in aggregate human capital and economic output, reducing aggregate welfare. This efficiency-mobility trade-off is rooted in the effects of longer comprehensive schooling on learning and depends crucially on the presence of general equilibrium effects in the labor market. Finally, counterfactual analyses suggest that policies that reduce the parental influence in the school track choice can increase both social mobility and aggregate economic output, improving aggregate welfare.

18 

February 2026

05 Alessandro Ferrari (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Specialization, Complexity, and Resilience in Supply Chains

abstract

Despite growing policy interest, the determinants of supply chain resilience are still not well understood. We propose a new theory of supply chain formation in which only compatible inputs can be used in final production. Intermediate producers choose how much to specialize their goods, trading off higher value against a smaller pool of compatible final producers. We model supply chains as complex production processes requiring multiple complementary inputs. Specialization choices, production complexity, disruption frequency, and search frictions jointly determine supply chain resilience, that is, the speed at which final production recovers after a disruption. In equilibrium, production inputs are over-specialized due to a novel network externality: intermediate producers fail to internalize how their specialization choices affect the likelihood that final production takes place, and thus the unrealized value created by complementary inputs when it halts. As a result, supply chains are more productive in normal times but less resilient than socially desirable. A lump-sum subsidy to active final producers can decentralize efficient resilience in supply chains, and compatibility standards are generally welfare-enhancing.

12 Stefano Gagliarducci (University Tor vergata)
Church, State and Education: School Funding and Catholic Assimilation in the U.S.(with Squicciarini M. and Tabellini M.)

Abstract

This paper studies the consequences of Blaine Amendments — constitutional provisions barring public funding for sectarian schools — on Catholic education and immigrant assimilation in the U.S. during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1920). We combine full-count census data with newly digitized records of Catholic parishes and schools from the Official Catholic Directory. Exploiting staggered adoption across states and variation in Catholic population across counties, we show that Blaine Amendments triggered a substantial reduction in Catholic schools and enrollment, particularly in counties with larger Catholic populations, where maintaining schooling systems may have been especially costly. Using individual-level census data, we then examine the downstream effects on assimilation. Catholic immigrants exposed to Blaine during school age were more likely to intermarry, speak English, and naturalize, while those first exposed as adults were more likely to naturalize but less likely to intermarry. However, these effects are muted in larger Catholic communities, consistent with models in which enclaves reduce incentives to assimilate. Our findings highlight how state restrictions on religious schooling reshaped the educational landscape and influenced immigrant integration, offering new evidence on the interplay between schooling, religion, and nation-building.

19 

26 Giorgia Marini (Sapienza University of Rome)
Waiting Times and Waiting Lists in the NHS: Theory, Evidence, and the Role of Hospital Mergers

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between waiting times and waiting lists in the English National Health Service (NHS), where—contrary to standard queuing logic—we observe a not always positively correlation between the two. We first develop a theoretical model in which hospitals choose service volumes under regulated prices and semi-altruistic preferences. The model predicts that the interaction between treatment volume decisions and backlog accumulation gives rise to a non-monotonic relation between waiting lists and waiting times. We then test this prediction using a panel of English hospitals and find evidence of a not always positive relationship between waiting list size and average waiting time. Finally, we estimate the causal effects of hospital mergers on waiting lists using staggered difference-in-differences methods, showing how consolidation shapes access to care under capacity constraints.

March 2026

05 Joel van der Weele (University of Anmsterdam)
Rationalizations and Political Polarization

Abstract

We present a self- and social-signaling model formalizing findings in political psychology that moral and political judgments stem primarily from intuition and emotion, while reasoning serves to rationalize these intuitions to maintain an image of impartiality. In social interactions, agents’ rationalizations are strategic complements: others’ rationalizations weaken their ability to judge critically and make their actions less revealing of (inconvenient) truths. When agents are naive about their own rationalizations, our model predicts ideological and affective polarization, with each side assigning inappropriate motives to the other. Cross-partisan exchanges of narratives reduce polarization but are avoided by the agents. In within-group ex- changes agents favor skilled speakers, whose narratives worsen polarization. Our model explains partisan disagreements over policy consequences, aligns with empirical polarization trends, and offers insights into efforts to disrupt echo chambers.

12 Mario Larch (Universität Bayreuth)
Inverted Gravity: New Targets, Same Old Models?

Abstract

Traditional international trade analyses aim at evaluating the effects of policy changes on trade and welfare (e.g., the impact of the 2022 sanctions on Russia), and there are well-established tools (e.g., structural gravity) to perform such analyses. Recently, the need for trade policy intervention has often been motivated by outcome targets (e.g., resilience, strategic autonomy, and balanced trade). However, there are no good tools to quantify/characterize the policies that are needed to achieve the desired outcomes (e.g., what is the tariff change between Russia and China that would offset the impact of the sanctions on Russia in terms of trade and/or welfare). The main contribution of this paper is to propose such tools. A byproduct of our methods is that they also deliver novel indexes of bilateral trade costs that take general equilibrium linkages into account.

19 Cevat Aksoy (European Bank for Reconstruction and Developement)
The Value of Some Office Time

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether structured in-person contact can improve performance and retention in a fully remote workplace. We study a nine-month randomised controlled trial in the inbound customer service center operations of a multinational telecommunications firm. A sample of 248 fully remote customer-service agents was randomly assigned either to remain fully remote (control) or to attend the office one day per month (treatment), holding pay, schedules, tasks, and performance evaluation constant. The monthly office-day policy increases productivity. Calls per hour rise by about 4.4% on average, driven by roughly 5% shorter call durations, with no evidence of declines in service quality (customer ratings and audit scores) or changes in break time. The intervention also reduces attrition over the experimental horizon, with particularly strong retention effects among higher-performing agents. Evidence on mechanisms points to interaction and learning: treated agents report more frequent managerial feedback and stronger team communication, and randomised seating assignments show that brief co-location generates new peer links and productivity spillovers. Overall, predictable in-person contact can improve productivity and retention in fully remote service work.

26 Sacha Becker (University of Warwick)
From the Death of God to the Rise of Hitler 

Abstract

Can weakened religiosity facilitate the rise of totalitarianism? The Nazi Party set itself up as a political religion, emphasizing redemption, sacrifice, rituals, and communal spirit. This had a major impact on its success: Where the Christian Church only had shallow roots, the Nazis received higher electoral support and saw more party entry. “Shallow Christianity” reflects the geography of medieval Christianization and the strength of pagan practices, which we use as sources of exogenous variation. We also find predictive power at the individual level: Within each municipality, the likelihood of joining the Nazi Party was higher for those with less Christian first names. Data from Italy suggests that the phenomenon is not limited to the German case – more religious Italian communes supported the fascist movement less.

April 2026

02 Reinhold Kesler (University Düsseldorf)
Existence, Antecedents and Consequences of Non-Compliance in Mobile App Markets

Abstract
Digital platforms, now ubiquitous intermediaries in the modern economy, implement various governance rules (e.g., transparency requirements) with the purported goal of ensuring a level playing field for their participants. However, there is limited research exploring whether these rules are effective or even enforced, or whether platform participants can successfully avoid complying with platform requirements to gain unfair advantages. Therefore, this manuscript examines non-compliance in the mobile app market. The empirical study compares app developers’ disclosed versus actual behavior concerning the transfer of device IDs for advertising purposes. To this end, we analyze data for 852 apps available on Apple and Google platforms across 19 countries. The findings reveal that about 40% of apps are non-compliant, meaning they claim not to transfer device IDs despite doing so in practice. Compliance is more prevalent among apps catering to Apple (EU) users than Google (non-European) users. Notably, older apps and apps with more resources demonstrate greater compliance. However, popularity and reputation do not explain compliance. Moreover, compliance varies as a function of app category, as well as the app’s connections to specific supply-side platforms. Intriguingly, non-compliant apps earn at least 10% more advertising revenue than they would if they were compliant, thus gaining a significant economic edge.

09 Cecilia García Peñalosa (AMSE)
Technology Adoption and Women’s Rights: Evidence from Switzerland 

Abstract: 
Gender equality and economic growth have historically tended to move together yet identifying causal effects has been difficult. This paper uses data on the support for female suffrage in Switzerland in order to explore the impact of technology adoption on gender norms. We argue that the early adoption of electricity was conducive to local economic development, which in turn led to more egalitarian views on gender. To identify causality, we exploit geographic differences in the potential to generate electricity from waterpower. Our results show that early electricity adoption (by the 1910s) had a lasting impact on municipality vote shares in support of female suffrage in the groundbreaking 1959 referendum. We complement this finding with Cantonal referendums on female voting rights and federal electoral results to show that higher support for female political participation is observed in the data since the 1920s. 

(with Bjorn Brey and Edoardo Cefala)

May 2026

07 Mariapia Mendola (Università di Milano Bicocca)

27 Oded Galor (Brown University)