Welcome at ISBA !
The Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA) of the Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain) is a research centre of high international reputation.
ISBA collaborates with the teaching unit Louvain School of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (LSBA) and the technological platform Statistical Methodology and Computing Support (SMCS).
Upcoming Events at ISBA
EDT short course by François Portier
12-13/05/2026 - 09:30 -
François Portier
(ENSAI, CREST)
Will give a short course on :
Measure concentration and non-asymptotic statistics
Tuesday May, 12th, 2026, 9h30-12h30 and 13h30-15h (Room TBC)
Wednesday May, 13th, 2026, 9h30-12h30 and 13h30-15h (Room TBC)
May we kindly ask you to register for the event at the following link:
https://forms.office.com/pages/responsepage.aspx?id=1JCwei76z068fEEntNWC7A0x3GIiKy5JqzLWN70hq_1UMzhNWE42V01QWERNT1lFWVI3SUs4WTdHRS4u&route=shorturl
Chair International Francqui Professorship. Prof Ian McKeague
16/04/2026 - 10:00 - Doyen 21 -
Chair International Francqui Professorship
Prof. Ian McKeague | Lecture : "The Tukey-Dyer method"
Abstract:
As well as coining the word software, John Tukey famously remarked that the best thing about being a statistician is that you get to play in everyone’s backyard. Tukey's point was that being a statistician gives the freedom to pursue an interest in almost any field. In this two-part talk, I will argue for what I call the Tukey-Dyer method: the inspired choice of "a slight corner on something" as the starting point for creative work, even when you are not an expert. The first part of the talk will discuss how the method can be useful in searching for novel ideas in statistics, whether A.I. can play a role, and how the method has helped start various projects I have been involved with over my career. The second part of the talk will focus on recent work in the areas of functional data analysis and post-selection inference in which the Tukey-Dyer method has had an influence.
REGISTRATION (deadline for registration April 5th)
When: 10:00-12:30 on April 16th.
Where: ‘Doyen’ Building (Auditorium Doyen 21), Place des Doyens, 1348 Ottignies-Louvain-la-Neuve. The easiest access is by entering via Place Rabelais. The room is on the 2nd floor.
More details about associated events are available at: https://feb.kuleuven.be/research/decision-sciences-and-information-management/events/FrancquiMcKeague
For all other information and specific requests, please reach out to: nancy.guillaume@uclouvain.be - eugen.pircalabelu@uclouvain.be
For the local organizing committee at UCLouvain,
Prof. Catherine Legrand
Prof. Eugen Pircalabelu
EXALT Workshop - Learning spatio-temporal climate extremes
27/05/2026 - 09:00 - Aula Magna (Louvain House)
EXALT Workshop - Learning spatio-temporal climate extremes
WEBSITE : https://exalt-project.github.io/workshop-2026/
Welcome to the EXALT project!
The EXtreme weather Attribution at mid- and high-Latitudes using advanced statistical Techniques (EXALT) project is an interdisciplinary effort that involves three research institutes: the Namur Institute for Complex Systems (naXys) at UNamur, the Earth and Climate Center (part of ELI, the Earth and Life Institute) at UCLouvain, and the institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (part of LIDAM, the Louvain Institute of Data Analysis and Modeling in economics and statistics) at UCLouvain. The PhD grants are financed through the Action de Recherche Concertée (ARC) called EXALT - EXtreme weather Attribution at mid- and high-Latitudes using advanced statistical Techniques, under the supervision of Profs. Francesco Ragone, François Massonnet, Johan Segers and Anna Kiriliouk (UCLouvain).
The overall objective of EXALT is to introduce a novel comprehensive framework for extreme event attribution and to apply it to the most influential events in the mid-high latitudes, namely heatwaves and compound drought-heat events over Europe, floods in southern and northern Europe, and sea ice extent over the Antarctic. Our attribution framework will (i) introduce non-stationarity in the extreme-value models, (ii) be developed with a multivariate mindset, and (iii) deliver reliable statistics thanks to a meticulous choice of study region (via clustering methods) and climate data (augmented through rare event algorithms). Our proposed methods aim to better constrain the probabilities of occurrence of past and future extreme events and to arrive at robust attribution statements that do not understate (nor overstate) the further risks that society will face.
Registration
Registration is free but mandatory; you can register by sending an email to anna.kiriliouk@uclouvain.be before May 1st. Please note that places are limited and will be assigned on a first come first serve basis.

Applied Statistics Workshop by Nicolas Schtickzelle
17/04/2026 - 14:30 - ISBA C.115 + Online
Nicolas Schtickzelle
(UCLouvain)
Will give a presentation on :
P‑values and effect sizes: why “simple” statistical quantities aren’t always simple
P‑values and effect sizes are among the most widely used—and sometimes misused—quantities in statistical analysis. The p‑value often appears as the sole metric in weak statistical reports, while effect sizes are increasingly promoted to complement or replace p‑values by quantifying the magnitude of an effect rather than its mere statistical significance. Although these concepts seem straightforward to scientists with a solid statistical background, their practical implementation can reveal surprising subtleties.
In this seminar, we explore two situations where the gap between the conceptual definitions of these quantities and their real‑world computation becomes especially important. First, we examine how common statistical software computes p‑values and how these implementations can quietly diverge from textbook definitions—sometimes with the intention of reducing misinterpretation, but at the cost of obscuring key conceptual ideas. Second, we investigate how the treatment of “absent” predictors in linear models influences effect‑size estimation in multimodel averaging, leading to potentially large differences depending on the chosen parameterization and interpretation.
Through these two examples, the seminar highlights why even basic statistical quantities deserve a closer look, and how understanding the nuances behind them can improve both statistical practice and critical interpretation.
Teams Link: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/349902929081522?p=DQKvIriuXSAtcyWEcn
Applied Statistics Workshop by Benoit Berac
17/04/2026 - 16:00 - ISBA C.115 + Online -
Benoit Berac
(European Investment Bank)
Will give a presentation on :
Introduction to the Implementation and Conservative Adjustments in the Estimation of Regulatory PD in Low Default Portfolios
This presentation provides a brief introduction to how regulatory probability of default (PD) is estimated for low default portfolios, with a focus on the practical implementation of internal ratings, their mapping to PD curves, and the application of conservative adjustments. Emphasis will be placed on prudential requirements, the associated model risk, and calculation practices rather than theoretical modelling, with examples drawn from regulation and wholesale exposures in banks.
About the speaker: Benoit Berac received his master's degree in statistics at UCLouvain in 2014. He has 20 years of experience in banking regulation, specializing in the implementation of CRR calculation projects and the integration of risk model outputs within banking computation systems.
Teams Link: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/34910478870806?p=vyE6a6ikzLyEbDsMdW
IMAL Workshop - Imperfect Data : From Mathematical Foundations to Applications in Life Sciences
28/05/2026 - 09:30 - Martin’s hotel
IMAL Workshop - Imperfect Data : From Mathematical Foundations to Applications in Life Sciences.
The workshop will be held at Martin’s Agora City Resort in Louvain-la-Neuve (Rue de l’Hocaille 1-3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve) and a tentative schedule, as well as the list of speakers and title of their presentation is listed below:
9h30 Welcome words/Introduction
9h40 - 10h20 Rajen Shah (University of Cambridge) : "Hunt and test for assessing the fit of semiparametric regression models".
10h20 - 11h00 Lise Léonard (UCLouvain) : "Statistical Inference and Model Averaging in High-Dimensional Regression".
Pause
11h20 - 12h00 Gaëtan Louvet (ULB/UNamur) : "Robustness of Tukey depth median"
12h00 - 12h40 Jeong Min Jeon (Seoul National University) : "Local Fréchet regression with spherical predictors".
Lunch break
14h00 - 14h40 Cristian Preda (Université Lille) : "Categorical functional data analysis with application to clustering patient trajectories after discharge from an acute geriatric unit".
14h40 - 15h20 Hortense Doms (UCLouvain) : "Joint modeling of longitudinal HRQoL data accounting for the risk of competing dropouts".
Pause
15h40 - 16h20 Agathe Guilloux (INRIA) : "Dynamic survival prediction with time-dependent covariates observed at irregular frequency".
16h20 - 17h00 Negera Wakgari Deresa (KU Leuven) : "On an extension of the Cox model for time-dependent covariates under dependent censoring with unknown association".
17h00 Closing
17h10 Drinks and social time
Registration to the event (morning and/or afternoon sessions, lunch and/or drinks) is free, but mandatory using the form : IMAL Workshop – Remplir le formulaire . (The deadline for registration is May 20th at 17pm.)
Parking : For external participants travelling by car, a QR entry code will be provided for parking nearby. Please let us know if you need one.
More information about the ARC IMAL project is available here.
For further inquiries please reach out to:
Eugen Pircalabelu (eugen.pircalabelu@uclouvain.be)
Nancy Guillaume (nancy.guillaume@uclouvain.be)
Looking forward to welcoming you all at the event!
On behalf of the IMAL team,
Prof. Catherine Legrand
Prof. Germain Van Bever
Prof. Eugen Pircalabelu
Applied Statistics Workshop by Eugen Pircalabelu
08/05/2026 - 14:30 - ISBA C.115 + Online
Eugen Pircalabelu
(UCLouvain)
Will give a presentation on :
An exploratory analysis for unraveling landmarks and understanding the human spinal cord anatomy
I will present in this talk a case-study that involves spinal cord measurements. Understanding
the segmental anatomy of the human spinal cord remains challenging due to its inter-individual variability and the lack of methodological consistency across previous studies. Although recent imaging studies enhanced the segmental localization, they do not cover the entire length of the spinal cord and require expert guidance. In this cadaveric study, my collaborators’ team dissected 40 spinal cords and measured the length, thickness, and width of 29 segments (C2 toS5).
With the help of basic tools from multivariate analysis (such as Procustes shape analysis and
Distance correlation) and functional data analysis we try to model and understand characteristics of the human spinal cord. Our analysis highlights reliable anatomical landmarks, in particular the L4 and C6 segments while (mildly) enhancing our understanding of the spinal cord anatomy and unveiling some aspects of its complexity.
Teams Link: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/31784337248719?p=QijzzNOiBllAau3gQG
Applied Statistics Workshop by Erwin Dreesen
08/05/2026 - 16:00 - ISBA C.115 + Online
Erwin Dreesen
(KULeuven)
Will give a presentation on :
Why Precision Dosing Fails (and How Statistics Could Fix It)
Model-informed precision dosing uses statistical models to individualize therapy, but real-world performance often suffers from model mismatch, prior miscalibration, and overconfidence in single-model forecasts. This talk shows how to make MIPD more reliable using practical tools from applied statistics: controlling prior informativeness (including prior flattening), robust Bayesian updating, and multimodel/ensemble approaches to address model uncertainty. I will illustrate these ideas with case studies across different disease areas and drugs, and I will discuss how to validate performance using calibration and prediction-focused metrics that matter in clinical practice.
Teams Link: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/325074107501257?p=T7gDATOIXe5s01DMsU
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