Blind prediction challenge – dike breaching

The Hydraulics research group of the Civil and Environmental Engineering (GCE) department of the Institute of Mechanics, Materials, and Civil Engineering (iMMC) at UCLouvain, in collaboration with the hydraulic laboratory of CESAME, Compagnie Nationale du Rhône (CNR), France, invite you to participate in the prediction of dike failures by overtopping in two different situations.

A full description of the proposed tests (Test 1 with uniform sediments and Test 2 with non-uniform sediments) can be found in this document:

The data required to run the simulations can be obtained upon request by filling this form.

This challenge is designed for a wide range of participants, from those that wish to use simplified models, to those willing to employ more refined simulation tools. The deadline for the submission of the blind predictions is Friday January 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM (CEST).

After submission of the blind prediction results, the measured data will be released to the participants to allow for optimizing the model parameters. The rough and optimized results will be discussed during a workshop that will be organized in Louvain-la-Neuve in Spring 2026 (date to be confirmed). A summary of the test results and of the anonymized blind predictions will be presented during a session at the River Flow conference in Thessaloniki in 2026. Then, a joint paper discussing the modelling options and the various results could be prepared for submission to the Journal of Hydraulic Research, as part of the article collection about breaching that is currently in development.

Finally, please share this invitation with your colleagues and encourage them to participate. We are looking forward to receiving your predictions!