The increasing overcrowding of Earth’s orbits has become a major concern. Commercial space launches are growing rapidly, and collisions or breakups of space objects lead to an uncontrolled proliferation of debris, further congesting orbital environments. This self-reinforcing process, known as the Kessler syndrome, poses a serious threat to space operations. To assess collision risks, space agencies such as NASA and ESA rely on breakup models, which in turn depend on empirical parameters. Physics-based models of dynamic fragmentation can significantly improve these inputs.

We have developed a high-performance finite-element framework with dynamic insertion of cohesive elements to capture crack initiation, propagation, branching, and coalescence. These dynamic fragmentation simulations yield detailed statistics of fragment masses, shapes, and velocities. We will show how this class of models compares favorably with analytical energy-based approaches for benchmark problems such as expanding rings or spherical membranes that mimic exploding fuel tanks. We will also discuss why accurately modeling the non-smooth nature of contact mechanics is essential for the long-term stability of such simulations.