PhDs

Mortality in older children, adolescents and youth aged 5-24 : innovations for modelling trends and investigating disparities  

Promotor : Bruno Masquelier 

Funding : PDR FNRS

The project will explore between-country disparities in premature mortality since 1990 and focus on mortality trends below the age of 25. Children, adolescents and youth aged less than 25 constitute 41% of the global population and bear a considerable burden of premature mortality, accounting for 7.1 million deaths in 2021. The project aims to develop models to reconstruct trends in mortality for all countries worldwide for the age groups 5-14 and 15-24, two age groups where mortality analysis is challenging due to data sparsity. It also involves cross-country analysis of mortality in age groups 5-14 and 15-24 to quantify the attributable risk factors at the national level and compare them with the main drivers of under-five mortality. The project will help understand why some countries witness rapid declines in mortality, while others see increases or stalls, and pinpoint countries with atypical age patterns of mortality in the first 25 years of the life course. 

Family environment, Internal migration and Mortality from external causes in sub-Saharan Africa. An Analysis of longitunal data from population-based surveillance  

Promotor : Philippe Bocquier

Funding : FSR

This study explores how family structures and internal migration shape vulnerability to mortality from external causes throughout the life course in sub-Saharan Africa. Using longitudinal data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) covering two to three decades depending on the site, the project seeks to: (a) describe the magnitude, temporal trends, and main categories of external causes of death; (b) estimate the probabilities of dying from intentional and unintentional causes relative to other causes of death; (c) examine the influence of family configurations and transitions on this mortality; and (d) assess the impact of migratory trajectories on these patterns. By focusing on key stages of the life course, the study highlights how vulnerabilities linked to family dynamics and residential mobility evolve over time—dimensions that remain insufficiently addressed in research on external-cause mortality in the region. 

Rethinking mortality measurement in crisis settings: the promise and pitfalls of Mobile Phone Surveys (MPS) in Low- and Middle-Income Countries  

Promotor : Bruno Masquelier

Funding : UCLouvain

Reliable mortality statistics are crucial for monitoring population health. However, in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), civil registration systems are incomplete, with fewer than 25% of deaths recorded in numerous sub-Saharan African countries. Consequently, national mortality estimates often depend on face-to-face data collection through censuses and large household surveys, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Unfortunately, these traditional methods are costly, logistically challenging, and frequently disrupted by crises, including armed conflicts, natural disasters, and the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the rapid expansion of mobile phone coverage in LMICs presents new opportunities for alternative data collection strategies. Recent studies indicate that phone surveys can provide timely and cost-effective data, but concerns persist regarding selection bias, data quality, and the reliability of mortality indicators obtained through remote interviewing. This PhD project seeks to evaluate the feasibility, accuracy, and limitations of measuring mortality via mobile phone surveys in LMICs, with Burkina Faso as a case study. The research will utilize multiple data sources, including the 2019 population census, previous DHS rounds, two Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in Ouagadougou and Nouna, and the Rapid Mortality Mobile Phone Survey (RaMMPS) conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. It will compare mortality estimates derived from phone surveys against those from face-to-face data collection. The study will address three main questions: (1) How does mobile phone ownership bias impact mortality estimates? (2) How do mortality levels and trends from phone surveys differ from those obtained through standard household surveys and HDSS data? (3) Can we isolate and quantify age misreporting, date errors, and death under-reporting as sources of discrepancies between survey methods? Methodologically, the project will integrate direct and indirect demographic estimation, multivariate modeling of selection effects, and record linkage techniques to analyze reports from both phone and face-to-face interviews at the individual and household levels. By using high-quality longitudinal HDSS data as a benchmark, the study will quantify how measurement errors and omissions contribute to observed mortality gaps. Determining whether mobile phone surveys can effectively capture mortality patterns is particularly relevant for countries like Burkina Faso, where insecurity, health crises, and limited resources obstruct traditional data collection. This research will provide insights into the potential of mobile phone surveys as a cost-efficient tool for rapid mortality monitoring, thereby complementing existing systems and enhancing data availability for policy planning and public health decision-making in low-income settings. 

Women’s Empowerment and Intimate Partner Violence: A Mixed-Methods Study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burkina Faso 

Promotor: Ester Rizzi. 
Funding: ARES. 

This dissertation project explores the interactions between control over resources and women’s exposure to intimate partner violence in the DRC and Burkina Faso. Using a mixed-methods approach, it examines how women’s empowerment influences the prevalence of violence. The objective is to better understand these dynamics in order to inform policies on prevention and women’s empowerment. 

Excess winter mortality in Belgium in the 21st century  

Promotor : Bruno Masquelier 

Funding : FSR. Belgium faces persistently high excess winter mortality (EWM).  

This project aims to investigate EWM in Belgium by 1) analyzing EWM trends and identifying which sex,  age, and causes of death contribute most to the overall EWM; 2) determining individual-level factors that increase the risk of death in the cold season; 3) exploring the geographical distribution of EWM; and 4) assessing future EWM trends under a changing climate. Using Belgian census data from 2001, 2011, and 2021, linked with death records since 2000, the research employs demographic, econometric, and spatial analysis to provide insights for reducing preventable deaths due to EWM. 

Degrees of inequality: How educational attainment shapes mortality and bereavement in a warming world – A global analysis with case studies from Belgium, Bangladesh, and Senegal (TEMPINK)  

Promotor : Bruno Masquelier 

Funding : FWO. Collaboration : Vrije Universiteit Brussel.  

As climate change intensifies, rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate mortality inequalities and disrupt family structures worldwide. While extreme temperatures increase direct health risks, their indirect consequences—such as the loss of close kin, including parents, grandparents, and spouses—remain under-explored. This project examines how temperature-driven excess mortality impacts both socioeconomic disparities in mortality and kin availability, focusing on Belgium, Senegal, and Bangladesh. This research will (i) quantify mortality risks linked to temperature variations, assessing how educational attainment influences vulnerability to climate-related deaths, (ii) project future mortality burdens under different warming scenarios by incorporating climate projections, (iii) analyse bereavement patterns, estimating the availability of close kin, and (iv) assess the long-term social and demographic consequences of kin loss, identifying regions where these effects may be most pronounced. To capture these dynamics, the project combines statistical mortality modelling with formal kinship demographic methods, adapting approaches to the strengths and limitations of the different available data sources. By integrating case-specific analyses with global projections, this research will provide a comprehensive assessment of climate-driven mortality and kin loss, offering critical insights into the long-term social consequences of rising temperatures.  

Domestic Violence, Reproductive Coercion, and Reproductive Health Among Women in Intimate Relationships in Four Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Mixed-Methods Approach Among Heterosexual Couples

Violent Mortality in Belgium from the 19th Century to the Present: A Historical, Spatial, and Sociodemographic Approach 

Promotor: Thierry Eggerickx (UCLouvain). 

Funding: Ineqkill, EOS – FWO/FNRS 

As part of the Ineqkill research project, which studies the origins and development of inequalities in mortality in Belgium, this thesis focuses on deaths from external causes. Its objective is to observe the temporal and spatial evolution of deaths by homicide, suicide, or accident between 1830 and 2023 in Belgium, and to identify the determinants of these trends at both the macro (national, district, and municipal) and micro (individual) levels by utilizing data from diverse and complementary sources. Major temporal and spatial trends are analyzed in light of changes in the societal context, while the individual-level approach highlights the impact of social inequalities on violent mortality, using historical data from select municipalities (1820–1946) and then in greater depth over the past 40 years (1981–2023) .

Family trajectories across Europe are becoming increasingly heterogeneous, and levels of childlessness continue to rise in many countries. The study analyzes the life course trajectories of childless individuals and parents across core dimensions of adulthood: partnership histories, residential independence, and income trajectories. It also examines how socioeconomic characteristics and family-of-origin factors are associated with these trajectories. A comparative design is employed to investigate Finland and Belgium, two welfare regimes that differ in their policy orientations and prevalence of childlessness. Finland combines high rates of childlessness with extensive family support policies, whereas Belgium displays moderate childlessness levels and a less comprehensive policy framework. Using longitudinal register data and sequence-based analytical methods, the study identifies distinct trajectory profiles and assesses the extent to which childlessness is associated with different economic pathways and family formation patterns. 

Defining, Measuring, and Explaining Migrant Mortality in Belgium (1991-2022): Inequalities Between and Beyond Migrant Populations  

Promotor : Philippe Bocquier 

Funding : Ineqkill project

This research examines migrant mortality in Belgium through a comprehensive demographic lens, addressing conceptual, methodological, and empirical challenges. Drawing on individual-level census and population register data, it explores the sociodemographic characteristics of migrant populations and assesses how varying definitions of “migrant” affect mortality estimates. The analysis compares trends in life expectancy and lifespan inequality with those observed in other European countries, investigates the influence of duration of stay and age at immigration, and examines changes in cause-specific mortality over time. Finally, it considers the role of community-level factors in shaping migrant health outcomes. Together, these findings provide a clearer understanding of migrant mortality patterns and their evolution in Belgium within a broader international context. 

This research aims to describe and understand the internal migrations of applicants for international protection in Belgium who arrived in the country between 2012 and 2016. Based on national register data, this thesis particularly focuses on the residential moves within the Belgian territory during the asylum procedure and afterwards (whether the migrant has been granted protection or not). Using a longitudinal approach, this work will examine internal migration pathways and link them to other trajectories (family, administrative, or professional), allowing both a description of the situations and an explanation based on various possible determinants. Understanding where asylum applicants settle and why allows to put their integration in Belgium into perspective. Furthermore, this work helps evaluate the effect of the asylum reception system on subsequent residential settlement.