Doctorats

Closing Child and Youth Mortality Gaps - Making Sense of Cross-Country Inequalities in Premature Mortality Below Age 25  

Promoteur : Bruno Masquelier 

Financement : PDR FNRS

The project will explore between-country disparities in premature mortality since 1990 and focus on mortality trends below the age of 25. Children, adolescents and youth aged less than 25 constitute 41% of the global population and bear a considerable burden of premature mortality, accounting for 7.1 million deaths in 2021. The project aims to develop models to reconstruct trends in mortality for all countries worldwide for the age groups 5-14 and 15-24, two age groups where mortality analysis is challenging due to data sparsity. It also involves cross-country analysis of mortality in age groups 5-14 and 15-24 to quantify the attributable risk factors at the national level and compare them with the main drivers of under-five mortality. The project will help understand why some countries witness rapid declines in mortality, while others see increases or stalls, and pinpoint countries with atypical age patterns of mortality in the first 25 years of the life course. 

Family envionment, Internal migration and Mortality from external causes in sub-Saharan Africa. An Analysis of longitunal data from population-based surveillance  

Promoteur : Philippe Bocquier

Financement : FSR

This study explores how family structures and internal migration shape vulnerability to mortality from external causes throughout the life course in sub-Saharan Africa. Using longitudinal data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) covering two to three decades depending on the site, the project seeks to: (a) describe the magnitude, temporal trends, and main categories of external causes of death; (b) estimate the probabilities of dying from intentional and unintentional causes relative to other causes of death; (c) examine the influence of family configurations and transitions on this mortality; and (d) assess the impact of migratory trajectories on these patterns. By focusing on key stages of the life course, the study highlights how vulnerabilities linked to family dynamics and residential mobility evolve over time—dimensions that remain insufficiently addressed in research on external-cause mortality in the region. 

Rethinking mortality measurement in crisis settings: the promise and pitfalls of Mobile Phone Surveys (MPS) in Low- and Middle-Income Countries  

Promoteur : Bruno Masquelier

Financement : UCLouvain

Reliable mortality statistics are crucial for monitoring population health. However, in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), civil registration systems are incomplete, with fewer than 25% of deaths recorded in numerous sub-Saharan African countries. Consequently, national mortality estimates often depend on face-to-face data collection through censuses and large household surveys, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Unfortunately, these traditional methods are costly, logistically challenging, and frequently disrupted by crises, including armed conflicts, natural disasters, and the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the rapid expansion of mobile phone coverage in LMICs presents new opportunities for alternative data collection strategies. Recent studies indicate that phone surveys can provide timely and cost-effective data, but concerns persist regarding selection bias, data quality, and the reliability of mortality indicators obtained through remote interviewing. This PhD project seeks to evaluate the feasibility, accuracy, and limitations of measuring mortality via mobile phone surveys in LMICs, with Burkina Faso as a case study. The research will utilize multiple data sources, including the 2019 population census, previous DHS rounds, two Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in Ouagadougou and Nouna, and the Rapid Mortality Mobile Phone Survey (RaMMPS) conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. It will compare mortality estimates derived from phone surveys against those from face-to-face data collection. The study will address three main questions: (1) How does mobile phone ownership bias impact mortality estimates? (2) How do mortality levels and trends from phone surveys differ from those obtained through standard household surveys and HDSS data? (3) Can we isolate and quantify age misreporting, date errors, and death under-reporting as sources of discrepancies between survey methods? Methodologically, the project will integrate direct and indirect demographic estimation, multivariate modeling of selection effects, and record linkage techniques to analyze reports from both phone and face-to-face interviews at the individual and household levels. By using high-quality longitudinal HDSS data as a benchmark, the study will quantify how measurement errors and omissions contribute to observed mortality gaps. Determining whether mobile phone surveys can effectively capture mortality patterns is particularly relevant for countries like Burkina Faso, where insecurity, health crises, and limited resources obstruct traditional data collection. This research will provide insights into the potential of mobile phone surveys as a cost-efficient tool for rapid mortality monitoring, thereby complementing existing systems and enhancing data availability for policy planning and public health decision-making in low-income settings. 

Autonomisation de la femme et violences dans une relation intime : une étude mixte en République Démocratique du Congo et au Burkina Faso  

Promotrice : Ester Rizzi. Financement : ARES.  

Ce projet de thèse explore les interactions entre le contrôle des ressources et l’exposition des femmes aux violences dans une relation intime en RDC et au Burkina Faso. En adoptant une approche mixte, il examine comment l’autonomisation de la femme influence la prévalence des violences. L’objectif est de mieux comprendre ces dynamiques afin d’éclairer les politiques de prévention et d’autonomisation des femmes. 

Excess winter mortality in Belgium in the 21st century  

Promoteur : Bruno Masquelier 

Financement : FSR. Belgium faces persistently high excess winter mortality (EWM).  

This project aims to investigate EWM in Belgium by 1) analyzing EWM trends and identifying which sex,  age, and causes of death contribute most to the overall EWM; 2) determining individual-level factors that increase the risk of death in the cold season; 3) exploring the geographical distribution of EWM; and 4) assessing future EWM trends under a changing climate. Using Belgian census data from 2001, 2011, and 2021, linked with death records since 2000, the research employs demographic, econometric, and spatial analysis to provide insights for reducing preventable deaths due to EWM. 

Degrees of inequality: How educational attainment shapes mortality and bereavement in a warming world – A global analysis with case studies from Belgium, Bangladesh, and Senegal (TEMPINK)  

Promoteur : Bruno Masquelier 

Financement : FWO. Collaboration : Vrije Universiteit Brussel.  

As climate change intensifies, rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate mortality inequalities and disrupt family structures worldwide. While extreme temperatures increase direct health risks, their indirect consequences—such as the loss of close kin, including parents, grandparents, and spouses—remain under-explored. This project examines how temperature-driven excess mortality impacts both socioeconomic disparities in mortality and kin availability, focusing on Belgium, Senegal, and Bangladesh. This research will (i) quantify mortality risks linked to temperature variations, assessing how educational attainment influences vulnerability to climate-related deaths, (ii) project future mortality burdens under different warming scenarios by incorporating climate projections, (iii) analyse bereavement patterns, estimating the availability of close kin, and (iv) assess the long-term social and demographic consequences of kin loss, identifying regions where these effects may be most pronounced. To capture these dynamics, the project combines statistical mortality modelling with formal kinship demographic methods, adapting approaches to the strengths and limitations of the different available data sources. By integrating case-specific analyses with global projections, this research will provide a comprehensive assessment of climate-driven mortality and kin loss, offering critical insights into the long-term social consequences of rising temperatures.  

Violence domestique, coercition reproductive et santé reproductive chez les femmes en union dans quatre pays d’Afrique subsaharienne : une approche mixte auprès de couples hétérosexuels  

Promoteurices : Ester Rizzi et José Mangalu Mobhe (université de Kinshasa)

Financement : UCLouvain CAI

La littérature demeure partagée quant à la relation entre la violence conjugale (VPI) et la santé reproductive. Certaines études mettent en évidence une association positive avec des indicateurs tels que les besoins non satisfaits en planification familiale, les grossesses non désirées, les avortements ou la non-utilisation de la contraception, suggérant que la violence domestique accroît le risque de ces issues. D’autres, en revanche, montrent un effet inverse, indiquant que la violence conjugale peut parfois entraîner une augmentation de l’usage contraceptif chez les victimes, tandis que plusieurs études ne relèvent aucune association significative. 
La majorité de ces travaux reposent sur des données transversales, limitant la compréhension des mécanismes sous-jacents. Or, certains chercheurs suggèrent que la violence conjugale pourrait agir à travers la coercition reproductive, dont la mesure demeure encore limitée, et dont la relation avec la violence conjugale n’est pas clairement établie. 
Par ailleurs, de nombreux auteurs recommandent de recourir à des approches qualitatives afin de mieux saisir les mécanismes par lesquels la violence domestique peut affecter la santé reproductive des femmes. Pour pallier ces limites, le présent projet adopte une approche mixte visant à identifier les causes de la violence conjugale, à examiner ses effets sur la santé reproductive et à analyser les mécanismes d’association entre la violence conjugale et la santé reproductive chez les femmes en union hétérosexuelle. Il cherche également à comprendre les stratégies d’adaptation mises en œuvre par les victimes. Ce projet de recherche est principalement axé sur la RDC, l’un des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne présentant des niveaux élevés de VPI, avec une analyse comparative incluant trois autres pays (Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso et Kenya). Ce choix repose sur la disponibilité de données comparables et sur la diversité des contextes étudiés. 

Dans le cadre du projet de recherche Ineqkill, qui étudie l’origine et le développement des inégalités dans la mortalité en Belgique, cette thèse s’intéresse aux décès par causes externes. Elle a pour objectif d’observer l’évolution temporelle et spatiale des décès par homicide, suicide ou accident entre 1830 et 2023 en Belgique, et d’établir les déterminants de ces évolutions à un niveau macro (national, arrondissements et communal), et micro (individuel) en mobilisant des données de sources diverses et complémentaires. Les grandes tendances temporelles et spatiales sont analysées au regard de l’évolution du contexte sociétal, alors que l’approche individuelle permet notamment de mettre en évidence l’impact des inégalités sociales sur la mortalité violente, grâce à l’utilisation de données historiques sur quelques communes (1820-1946), puis de manière plus approfondie au cours des 40 dernières années (1981-2023). 

Family trajectories across Europe are becoming increasingly heterogeneous, and levels of childlessness continue to rise in many countries. The study analyzes the life course trajectories of childless individuals and parents across core dimensions of adulthood: partnership histories, residential independence, and income trajectories. It also examines how socioeconomic characteristics and family-of-origin factors are associated with these trajectories. A comparative design is employed to investigate Finland and Belgium, two welfare regimes that differ in their policy orientations and prevalence of childlessness. Finland combines high rates of childlessness with extensive family support policies, whereas Belgium displays moderate childlessness levels and a less comprehensive policy framework. Using longitudinal register data and sequence-based analytical methods, the study identifies distinct trajectory profiles and assesses the extent to which childlessness is associated with different economic pathways and family formation patterns. 

Defining, Measuring, and Explaining Migrant Mortality in Belgium (1991-2022): Inequalities Between and Beyond Migrant Populations  

Promoteur : Philippe Bocquier 

Financement : Ineqkill project

This research examines migrant mortality in Belgium through a comprehensive demographic lens, addressing conceptual, methodological, and empirical challenges. Drawing on individual-level census and population register data, it explores the sociodemographic characteristics of migrant populations and assesses how varying definitions of “migrant” affect mortality estimates. The analysis compares trends in life expectancy and lifespan inequality with those observed in other European countries, investigates the influence of duration of stay and age at immigration, and examines changes in cause-specific mortality over time. Finally, it considers the role of community-level factors in shaping migrant health outcomes. Together, these findings provide a clearer understanding of migrant mortality patterns and their evolution in Belgium within a broader international context. 

This research aims to describe and understand the internal migrations of applicants for international protection in Belgium who arrived in the country between 2012 and 2016. Based on national register data, this thesis particularly focuses on the residential moves within the Belgian territory during the asylum procedure and afterwards (whether the migrant has been granted protection or not). Using a longitudinal approach, this work will examine internal migration pathways and link them to other trajectories (family, administrative, or professional), allowing both a description of the situations and an explanation based on various possible determinants. Understanding where asylum applicants settle and why allows to put their integration in Belgium into perspective. Furthermore, this work helps evaluate the effect of the asylum reception system on subsequent residential settlement.